“I very frequently get the question: ‘What’s going to change in the next 10 years?’ And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: ‘What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?’ And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.” – Jeff Bezos

“Now, more than ever.” “Unprecedented.” “Historic.” The relentless stream breaking headlines and salacious hooks, loudly demand your attention. Yet, in the torrent of data and discussion of what is new, it’s easy to lose sight of what remains the same.

Looking back to the unchanging elements can provide stability and understanding the constant forces, can offer a way to navigate currents, rather than being tossed about by them.

I’m searching for these constants, the relationships that have proven their resilience over centuries. While economists and social scientists may pale in comparison with the precision of physics, the pursuit is not in vain. Understanding what endures is key to harnessing the principles that shape reality.

A fews weeks ago, I followed a footnote to Ben Franklin’s “Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, 1751.” These are exactly the type of sources I relish because a brilliant, well-traveled, well-informed and well-connected person like Franklin is bound to have timeless insights. While I recommend you read the full short piece, these are 4 takeaways I had:

• When people can easily financially support families, they marry more often, and earlier and have more children
• It’s more expensive to live in the city generally, so people get married less, later and have fewer children
• The more crowded a country is, and the fewer resources it has, the more costly it is to secure resources, which is why Europe had roughly half, the marriages and half the population growth as the US back in 1751
• When there are good alternate opportunities for labor, and people can freely switch, the price of labor will be high

All of these are still relevant today, and are directionally correct.

1. Financial Stability Promotes Marriage and Family Growth

When people can support a family without financial strain, they marry younger and have more children. Franklin saw this dynamic as a foundation for America’s rapid population growth:

“For People increase in Proportion to the Number of Marriages, and that is greater in Proportion to the Ease and Convenience of supporting a Family. When Families can be easily supported, more Persons marry, and earlier in Life.

Land being thus plenty in America, and so cheap as that a labouring Man…can in a short Time save Money enough to purchase a Piece of new Land sufficient for a Plantation, whereon he may subsist a Family.

Such are not afraid to marry; for if they even look far enough forward to consider how their Children when grown up are to be provided for, they see that more Land is to be had at Rates equally easy, all Circumstances considered.”

This abundance of accessible land and resources gave American families the confidence to plan for the future, accelerating marriage and birth rates compared to more resource-limited regions.

2. Urban Living Discourages Early Marriage

The high costs and crowded conditions in urban areas discourage marriage, leading to delayed family formation. Franklin observed that the expense and competition of city life lead to fewer children:

“In Cities, where all Trades, Occupations and Offices are full, many delay marrying, till they can see how to bear the Charges of a Family; which Charges are greater in Cities, as Luxury is more common.”

“Many live single during Life, and continue Servants to Families, Journeymen to Trades, &c. hence Cities do not by natural Generation supply themselves with Inhabitants; the Deaths are more than the Births.”

In cities, the high cost of living slows population growth, making them dependent on migration from rural areas to maintain their numbers.

3. Limited Resources Reduce Marriage Rates and Population Growth

Franklin highlighted that scarcity of resources and competition for land made marriage less accessible and population growth slower in Europe compared to America:

“…if it is reckoned there, that there is but one Marriage per Annum among 100 Persons, perhaps we may here reckon two; and if in Europe they have but 4 Births to a Marriage (many of their Marriages being late) we may here reckon 8…”

“Europe is generally full settled with Husbandmen, Manufacturers, &c. and therefore cannot now much increase in People.”

“In Countries full settled, the Case must be nearly the same; all Lands being occupied and improved to the Heighth: those who cannot get Land, must Labour for others that have it; when Labourers are plenty, their Wages will be low; by low Wages a Family is supported with Difficulty; this Difficulty deters many from Marriage, who therefore long continue Servants and single.”

Due to higher costs and limited land, Europe’s population growth lagged behind America’s, where more accessible resources fueled twice as many marriages and higher birth rates.

4. Economic Mobility and Labor Demand Keep Wages High

With opportunities to own land and start businesses, American workers weren’t bound to low-wage jobs, keeping labor costs high. Franklin viewed this labor freedom as an economic advantage:

“Labour will never be cheap here, where no Man continues long a Labourer for others, but gets a Plantation of his own, no Man continues long a Journeyman to a Trade, but goes among those new Settlers, and sets up for himself, &c.”

“…till it is fully settled, Labour will never be cheap here…”

“Hence Labour is no cheaper now, in Pennsylvania, than it was 30 Years ago, tho’ so many Thousand labouring People have been imported.”

With freedom to pursue better opportunities, Americans weren’t trapped in low-wage labor. This economic mobility fostered independence and prosperity, standing in contrast to Europe’s more constrained and crowded labor markets.